13 April 2008

Horse Race Handicapping College - The Horse Racing Poly Dirt Mystery

Kentucky Derby Countdown:
19 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

The Horse Racing Poly Dirt Mystery


As the preps for the Kentucky Derby dwindle down to a precious few, the one race that promises to provide the most consternation for handicappers arrived courtesy of California last weekend, coming in the form of Colonel John’s dramatic victory in the Santa Anita Derby.

After winning the Sham while contesting a frigid pace, Colonel John changed his modus operandi and rallied to capture the West Coast’s most important prep with a strong late kick that should bode well for his chances in the mile-and-a-quarter Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.

Reflecting on the manner of his horse’s victory and the historical importance of the race, trainer Eoin Harty offered some words that seemed apropos at the time but had a somewhat hollow ring to them.

What he said was, “Historically, any horse that’s run well here and come out of this race in one piece usually shows up and runs a very good race on (Kentucky) Derby day. That's what we're hoping for."

Yes, historically they have. But will the trend continue this year when apples will be mixed with oranges?

You see, this year marked the first Santa Anita Derby contested on a synthetic track and now, especially with the expanded number of artificial surfaces in California, there’s one more variable tossed into an already confusing mix because several of the key players in the upcoming May 3 drama at Louisville will be racing on actual dirt for the first time.

Now last year certainly proved that horses can prep for the Triple Crown on artificial surfaces. Both Street Sense and Hard Spun ran on synthetic tracks in their final Kentucky Derby preps and they ran 1-2 at Churchill Downs. Yet both of those horses had won stakes on a dirt track, and Street Sense had taken the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs by a half-furlong, proving his deep affinity for the racing strip in... Rest of Story

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