Kentucky Derby Countdown:
75 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby
Thoroughbred Horse Racing Long Shot Factors
Successful Horse Race Handicappers have determined that playing Long Shots can be very profitable. Although, it is not suggested that one play Long Shots all the time, horse race handicappers that selectively play them when certain factors are considered have cashed in some large winning tickets.
Here are just a few factors to consider if you elect to play that Long Shot.
The Class Factor- If a horse has been finishing worse than 3rd or 4th in most of his starts, you should not immediately disregard him. Even if he has been finishing 5th, 6th, 7th, etc... Look to see if he has been beating a substantial number of higher class horses than those he will face today.
The Erratic Horse Factor- If a horse has run at least one good race at today's distance, and at the same class level as today's race, and the races prior to that good effort, and since that good effort, are too bad to be true, he may still be worth a bet. [the horse has shown that he has the ability to win, when he is ready]
The Hidden Class Drop Factor- A horse that goes from a starters allowance race to a regular claiming race at the same price is actually dropping in class. A horse that goes from a regular claiming race to a claiming race restricted to horses bred in a certain state is actually dropping in class. A horse that goes from a regular stakes race to a restricted stakes race is actually dropping in class.
The Productive Race Factor- Learn to keep track of how horses in various races later perform. This is particularly important in races for young horses. Young horses of unknown quality, will through the effect of statistical probability, find themselves in various groups.
Keep track of how the horses in a given race do in their subsequent efforts. If you notice that several of the horses have improved considerably in their later or next race, you might assume that the other horses of that race will likely improve as well.
Irregular Race Pattern Factor- A horse that runs an irregular race pattern is particularly impressive when it occurs in his first start or after a long layoff and may signal that the horse has unnoticed talent.
Past Performance Record Factor- If a horse shows nothing positive in any of the races that are shown in the Racing Form, then look at the year's record. You may notice that the horse has shown the ability to win in the past. [this may be the day]
When considering the above factors, also consider the following, knowing that the professional horse race handicapper is doing the same.
[horse earning's this year compared to the other horses in the field, significant jockey change?, equipment change?, drop in class?, significant speed in recent races?, better workouts?]
Horse racing handicapping and wagering, although a legal form of gambling, does not guarantee that the risk of losing your money has been eliminated.
Always wager with money that you can afford to lose, do not violate your money management rules, and do not be greedy, there will always be another horse race to wager on.
Fact: Only 2% of all horse race handicappers actually make money wagering.
Visit http://www.HorseRaceHandicappingCollege.com for more information.
