12 April 2008

Horse Race Handicapping College - Perfection + Potential = Kentucky Derby Winner?

Kentucky Derby Countdown:
20 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Perfection + Potential = Kentucky Derby Winner?


There is an unmistakable mystique that envelops the undefeated horse in the Kentucky Derby, the role in which the mercurial Big Brown is cast for the 134th running.

The aura of perfection glows brightly in a world accustomed to and comfortable with an 80 percent rate of failure. When a 3-year-old thoroughbred arrives free of blemish in Kentucky in advance of the first weekend of May, the so-far unstoppable force faces the sport's most daunting challenge short of winning the Triple Crown, the most difficult race in which he (or occasionally she) may ever compete, a test rife with challenge and peril. When such a horse remains unbowed after the Derby, the niche of sport in which racing exists is transcended.

Big Brown looks the part. Even to the untrained eye, he is a physically imposing chestnut, a combination of brawn with speed. He moved seamlessly from turf to dirt and effortlessly from allowance to Grade 1 company, winning the Florida Derby with absolute authority in what has been the most-impressive 9-furlong win of the season by any member of his generation. There is a song about him on You Tube, not a good song, but an exuberant tribute nevertheless. Big Brown already has fans and depending upon whose opinion is offered, he is either the Derby favorite or second-choice. To those who believe he has no chance, this is a betting opportunity.

He is either exactly what horse racing's leaders await, the dominant, unbending heroic figure, 1-5 every time he runs, an animal to whom children will write letters in crayon, or a disappointment in wait for the wheels to come off.

For all the potential, there is much for Big Brown to overcome on May 3.

A sparse campaign is not the trademark of trainer Rick Dutrow and a six-month gap in Big Brown's form was made necessary by hoof problems. No hoof, no horse, as they say, and infirm extremities in the thoroughbred are usually chronic.

He did not begin the season as a Derby prospect, but became one only last month after an explosive win in a race moved from turf to dirt at Gulfstream Park inspired his connections to change direction and target the Florida Derby. Were the Kentucky Derby the principal objective... Rest of Story

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