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Thoroughbred Horse Racing and the Track BiasAll successful horse race handicappers know that they always have to factor in the track bias for each and every horse race that they are considering.
So what is the basis of a track bias?
The basis of the track bias comes well before the horse race. Horse racing relies on a consistent track bias, and it is the job of the track superintendent to provide a safe race track for all the horses as well as that consistent track bias.
Every day, a member of the track crew measures the depth of the main track by driving around in a truck and stopping at every 16th pole to measure.
They stick a probe into the dirt/poly cushion at 3-foot, 10-foot, 20-foot, 30-foot, and 40-foot marks and writes down the measurement.
If the depth isn't consistent and true, the crew grades the racetrack until it is. Grading prevents a build up of materials along the rail. However, over the course of a race meet, certain trends can develop on the main track, turf course, or both, that give certain horses an advantage over others, and a professional horse race handicapper is able to spot these like a genius.
Here are some of the most common main track biases that a horse race handicapper should always factor into their analysis.
The Golden Rail: If the rail is golden, the speed horses last longer on the rail. You'll see the speed horses break from the starting gate and be taken straight to the rail by their jockeys. Horse race handicappers will pick up on this trend and use it to their advantage.
If a golden rail exists, even when a come-from-behind horse wins, this horse needs to spend a good part of the race saving ground on the rail before making a charge down the stretch.
Dead Rail: The converse is true when the rail is dead, meaning the inside speed horses are running as if standing still. Any speed horses that win over this track bias will race far off the rail, maybe as wide as four or five wide from the inside rail. In dead rail cases, look for come-from-behind horses to run wide in the stretch run.
Pure Speed Bias: When you see a pure speed bias racetrack, which path or lane the speed horse runs in really doesn't matter. Sometimes you see ridiculous fast fractions like a quarter-mile in less than 22 seconds and half-mile less than 45 seconds. With a speed bias, the leaders just keep going and don't get caught by the closing horses.
You'll tend to notice with experience that certain tracks have enormous biases due to rain and other weather conditions.
As a horseplayer and horse race handicapper, you will always need to be careful about a track bias, because you can easily get fooled.
For example, say the speed horse on the rail wins the first three races of the day. Many horse race handicappers will immediately label the main track as favoring inside speed. However, the three winners may have been the best horses in the races regardless of this perceived bias.
Also, when a jockey rides a speed horse, he will often try to break the horse sharp, regardless of the post, and move left towards the rail, regardless of the track bias.
Remember that riding the rail is the shortest path to the finish line.
If the first three winners were rally wide horses, many horse handicappers will list a dead rail and an outside lane speed bias.
Again, the three winners may just be the best horses in the races. And remember that horses that rally from behind, most of the time, rally wide because the jockey doesn't want to get caught in the traffic on the rail.
Bottom Line: There will always be a track bias, either perceived or actual. The burden will always be placed on the horse race handicapper to determine the validity.
Horse racing handicapping and wagering, although a legal form of gambling, does not guarantee that the risk of losing your money has been eliminated.
Always wager with money that you can afford to lose, do not violate your money management rules, and do not be greedy, there will always be another horse race to wager on.
Fact: Only 2% of all horse race handicappers actually make money wagering.
Visit http://www.HorseRaceHandicappingCollege.com for more information.
