07 April 2008

Horse Race Handicapping College - That is Why They Call it a Horse Race

Kentucky Derby Countdown:
25 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

That is Why They Call it a Horse Race

The "top seeds" apparently used up all their good fortune in the NCAA basketball tournament, leaving nothing for the favorites in weekend Kentucky Derby prep races.

In the semifinal round of Derby preps in California, Kentucky and Illinois, the favorites went down to defeat, clouding rather than clarifying the picture for the Run for the Roses, now just four weeks down the road.

As the dust cleared, however, it was apparent Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John was the best Derby prospect on the West Coast. And Tale of Ekati re-emerged as an East Coast contender with an upset win in the Wood Memorial. Florida Derby winner Big Brown and Louisiana Derby winner Pyro -- both idle during the weekend -- remain the favorites for the May 3 Kentucky Derby.

In Saturday's $750,000 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in New York, one-time overwhelming Derby favorite War Pass was the odds-on favorite as he tried to atone for a last-place finish in his last outing, the Tampa Bay Derby, which ended his undefeated string at six. Indeed, War Pass ran very well and led most of the way in the Wood, only to lose by a 1/2 length in the final strides to Tale of Ekati, who himself was rebounding from a poor effort in his last start.

War Pass may have been compromised by pace pressure from Inner Light, entered as a "rabbit" for stablemate Court Vision.

Under jockey Edgar Prado, Tale of Ekati, a Kentucky-bred son of Tale of the Cat, stalked the pace set by War Pass and Inner Light, then slipped through inside War Pass to steal the victory, running 1 1/8 miles in 1:52.35. Court Vision nipped Giant Moon for third while Inner Light faded to finish last.

Tale of Ekati, trained by Barclay Tagg, won the Futurity at Belmont Park last fall before turning in a dismal performance in the Monmouth Park slop in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile -- won by War Pass. In his first start this year, the colt finished a well-beaten sixth in the Louisiana Derby -- a race he obviously needed.

"We always thought he was a good horse," Tagg said, adding Tale of Ekati had some issues getting out of the gate in his last race. "We still felt good about him and we worked out some of those issues in the gate. He showed up today big time."

All of the top three likely would have enough graded stakes earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby field. Nick Zito, who trains War Pass, said the Derby still is in the picture. "If War Pass has a good month," Zito said, "we'll see if he can make it to the Derby."

In Saturday's $750,000 Santa Anita Derby, Colonel John came along in the final sixteenth to pass the tiring leaders and win by 1/2 length over Bob Black Jack, with Coast Guard Third. The favorite, El Gato Malo, who finished second to Colonel John in their last start, finished fifth Saturday. Another Derby hopeful, Yankee Bravo, got home fourth.

Rest of Story

From my perspective, Pyro is the handicapping favorite, but Colonel John was quite impressive in the Santa Anita Derby and should see plenty of pre-race action by many horse race handicappers.

Visit Horse Race Handicapping College for more information.