Horse Race Handicapping College - The Horse Racing Poly Dirt Mystery

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

19 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

The Horse Racing Poly Dirt Mystery

As the preps for the Kentucky Derby dwindle down to a precious few, the one race that promises to provide the most consternation for handicappers arrived courtesy of California last weekend, coming in the form of Colonel John’s dramatic victory in the Santa Anita Derby.

After winning the Sham while contesting a frigid pace, Colonel John changed his modus operandi and rallied to capture the West Coast’s most important prep with a strong late kick that should bode well for his chances in the mile-and-a-quarter Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.

Reflecting on the manner of his horse’s victory and the historical importance of the race, trainer Eoin Harty offered some words that seemed apropos at the time but had a somewhat hollow ring to them.

What he said was, “Historically, any horse that’s run well here and come out of this race in one piece usually shows up and runs a very good race on (Kentucky) Derby day. That's what we're hoping for."

Yes, historically they have. But will the trend continue this year when apples will be mixed with oranges?

You see, this year marked the first Santa Anita Derby contested on a synthetic track and now, especially with the expanded number of artificial surfaces in California, there’s one more variable tossed into an already confusing mix because several of the key players in the upcoming May 3 drama at Louisville will be racing on actual dirt for the first time.

Now last year certainly proved that horses can prep for the Triple Crown on artificial surfaces. Both Street Sense and Hard Spun ran on synthetic tracks in their final Kentucky Derby preps and they ran 1-2 at Churchill Downs. Yet both of those horses had won stakes on a dirt track, and Street Sense had taken the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs by a half-furlong, proving his deep affinity for the racing strip in... Rest of Story

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Horse Race Handicapping College - Perfection + Potential = Kentucky Derby Winner?

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

20 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Perfection + Potential = Kentucky Derby Winner?

There is an unmistakable mystique that envelops the undefeated horse in the Kentucky Derby, the role in which the mercurial Big Brown is cast for the 134th running.

The aura of perfection glows brightly in a world accustomed to and comfortable with an 80 percent rate of failure. When a 3-year-old thoroughbred arrives free of blemish in Kentucky in advance of the first weekend of May, the so-far unstoppable force faces the sport's most daunting challenge short of winning the Triple Crown, the most difficult race in which he (or occasionally she) may ever compete, a test rife with challenge and peril. When such a horse remains unbowed after the Derby, the niche of sport in which racing exists is transcended.

Big Brown looks the part. Even to the untrained eye, he is a physically imposing chestnut, a combination of brawn with speed. He moved seamlessly from turf to dirt and effortlessly from allowance to Grade 1 company, winning the Florida Derby with absolute authority in what has been the most-impressive 9-furlong win of the season by any member of his generation. There is a song about him on You Tube, not a good song, but an exuberant tribute nevertheless. Big Brown already has fans and depending upon whose opinion is offered, he is either the Derby favorite or second-choice. To those who believe he has no chance, this is a betting opportunity.

He is either exactly what horse racing's leaders await, the dominant, unbending heroic figure, 1-5 every time he runs, an animal to whom children will write letters in crayon, or a disappointment in wait for the wheels to come off.

For all the potential, there is much for Big Brown to overcome on May 3.

A sparse campaign is not the trademark of trainer Rick Dutrow and a six-month gap in Big Brown's form was made necessary by hoof problems. No hoof, no horse, as they say, and infirm extremities in the thoroughbred are usually chronic.

He did not begin the season as a Derby prospect, but became one only last month after an explosive win in a race moved from turf to dirt at Gulfstream Park inspired his connections to change direction and target the Florida Derby. Were the Kentucky Derby the principal objective... Rest of Story

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Horse Race Handicapping College - Horse Racing Final Exam With Pyro

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

21 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Horse Racing Final Exam With Pyro

Already secure in their qualifications for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1), Pyro and Cool Coal Man will cross paths for a final exam on Saturday in the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland Race Course.

Pyro, one of the leading Derby contenders coming into the year, has only enhanced his reputation with game victories in the Risen Star Stakes (G3) and Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds.

Keeneland oddsmaker Mike Battaglia reflected the widespread high regard for Pyro on Wednesday morning when he pegged the Pulpit colt as the even-money favorite on the morning line for the largest Blue Grass field since 1983.

The Blue Grass will be Pyro’s first start on a synthetic surface. Trainer Steve Asmussen sent him to Keeneland about ten days after his three-length victory in the Louisiana Derby on March 8.

“He’s obviously the horse to beat,” said .... Rest of Story

But from a horse handicapper's perspective, just because he is the horse to beat and probably the favorite, does not make him a good selection. He will no doubt be bet down and there will be no value, unless you box him in the 2nd and 3rd hole of an exacta or trifecta.

Be wise in your wagering and do not stray from your money management plan and you will be there for the big ticket horse races.

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Horse Race Handicapping College - Thoroughbred Horse Racing - Curlin + 1 Year = Z Fortune?

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

22 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Horse Racing - Curlin + 1 Year = Z Fortune?

One year after guiding Curlin to victory in Oaklawn Park's Arkansas Derby (G2), jockey Robby Albarado is approaching Saturday’s edition of the $1-million race with a different perspective.

Albarado will ride Z Fortune for the first time in the 1 1/8-mile race for three-year-olds. Steve Asmussen trains Z Fortune and Curlin, the 2007 Horse of the Year and champion three-year-old male.

“What a difference a year makes in the Arkansas Derby,” Albarado said. “The only thing that’s the same is I’m riding a horse for Steve. But unlike last year, this is a wide-open race with no standout.”

Zayat Stables’ Z Fortune enters off a fifth-place finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 15 at Oaklawn. The Siphon (Brz) colt made his first two starts of the year at Fair Grounds, and won the Lecomte Stakes (G3) on January 12 prior to finishing second to leading Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) contender Pyro in the Risen Star Stakes (G3) on February 9.

Rest of Story

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Horse Race Handicapping College - Horse Racing Film..."The First Saturday in May"

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

23 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Horse Racing Film..."The First Saturday in May"

Brad and John Hennegan love horse racing so much they quit their jobs to make a movie about it. For a year, the Hennegan brothers followed six horse trainers from different backgrounds but all with the same goal -- a spot in the 2006 Kentucky Derby.

Now, after snagging awards at film festivals and sponsorship from Churchill Downs, their independent film, "The First Saturday in May" will soon be seen in movie theaters nationwide.

"Across the country, people know what the Kentucky Derby is but they really don't know how horses get there," Brad Hennegan said in a phone interview from Los Angeles. "So we wanted to make kind of 'Hoop Dreams' at the race track."

"The First Saturday in May" will have its Louisville premiere Sunday with a special screening at the Louisville Palace. Beginning April 18, it will run for two weeks at Stonybrook Cinema De Lux 20, 2745 S. Hurstbourne Parkway.

The brothers from Huntington, N.Y., practically grew up at the race track thanks to their father, who worked for the New York Racing Association.

Brad Hennegan, 36, spent the last decade working in television for companies such as College Sports Television and the Independent Film Channel. John Hennegan, 39, enjoyed successful careers in radio and television before he decided to delve into film development and production. "The First Saturday in May" is the first feature-length film for the brothers.

"We wanted to do our small part to help grow the sport of horse racing," Brad Hennegan said.

The film features a behind-the-scenes look at horses like Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, Jazil and, of course, the late, great Barbaro. The documentary includes never-before-seen footage of the thoroughbred who captured Kentucky Derby 132, then captured the hearts of racing fans during his fatal battle with a broken leg.

Brad Hennegan stresses, however, that "The First Saturday in May," is a movie about people.

"It just happens to be set at the greatest race in the world -- the Kentucky Derby," he said. "If you're a horse racing fan and you wanted to tell a friend, 'This is why...

Rest of the Story

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Horse Race Handicapping College - Horse Race Traffic and a Stumble

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

24 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Horse Race Traffic and a Stumble

Afleet Alex has a very strong performance in 2005 at the Preakness. Elected to move from the rail to the middle of track and ran into traffic. Disaster was averted out of the final turn, and then he pulled away down the stretch and took the wire.

I have personally seen horses stumble out of the gate and go on to win, but have never seen a horse stumble late in the race and finish strong and win. Awesome!



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Horse Race Handicapping College - That is Why They Call it a Horse Race

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

25 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

That is Why They Call it a Horse Race

The "top seeds" apparently used up all their good fortune in the NCAA basketball tournament, leaving nothing for the favorites in weekend Kentucky Derby prep races.

In the semifinal round of Derby preps in California, Kentucky and Illinois, the favorites went down to defeat, clouding rather than clarifying the picture for the Run for the Roses, now just four weeks down the road.

As the dust cleared, however, it was apparent Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John was the best Derby prospect on the West Coast. And Tale of Ekati re-emerged as an East Coast contender with an upset win in the Wood Memorial. Florida Derby winner Big Brown and Louisiana Derby winner Pyro -- both idle during the weekend -- remain the favorites for the May 3 Kentucky Derby.

In Saturday's $750,000 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in New York, one-time overwhelming Derby favorite War Pass was the odds-on favorite as he tried to atone for a last-place finish in his last outing, the Tampa Bay Derby, which ended his undefeated string at six. Indeed, War Pass ran very well and led most of the way in the Wood, only to lose by a 1/2 length in the final strides to Tale of Ekati, who himself was rebounding from a poor effort in his last start.

War Pass may have been compromised by pace pressure from Inner Light, entered as a "rabbit" for stablemate Court Vision.

Under jockey Edgar Prado, Tale of Ekati, a Kentucky-bred son of Tale of the Cat, stalked the pace set by War Pass and Inner Light, then slipped through inside War Pass to steal the victory, running 1 1/8 miles in 1:52.35. Court Vision nipped Giant Moon for third while Inner Light faded to finish last.

Tale of Ekati, trained by Barclay Tagg, won the Futurity at Belmont Park last fall before turning in a dismal performance in the Monmouth Park slop in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile -- won by War Pass. In his first start this year, the colt finished a well-beaten sixth in the Louisiana Derby -- a race he obviously needed.

"We always thought he was a good horse," Tagg said, adding Tale of Ekati had some issues getting out of the gate in his last race. "We still felt good about him and we worked out some of those issues in the gate. He showed up today big time."

All of the top three likely would have enough graded stakes earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby field. Nick Zito, who trains War Pass, said the Derby still is in the picture. "If War Pass has a good month," Zito said, "we'll see if he can make it to the Derby."

In Saturday's $750,000 Santa Anita Derby, Colonel John came along in the final sixteenth to pass the tiring leaders and win by 1/2 length over Bob Black Jack, with Coast Guard Third. The favorite, El Gato Malo, who finished second to Colonel John in their last start, finished fifth Saturday. Another Derby hopeful, Yankee Bravo, got home fourth.

Rest of Story

From my perspective, Pyro is the handicapping favorite, but Colonel John was quite impressive in the Santa Anita Derby and should see plenty of pre-race action by many horse race handicappers.

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Horse Race Handicapping College - Thoroughbred Horse Racing and Wireless

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

26 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Horse Racing and Wireless

Although horse race handicapping and wagering on horse racing continues to be legal, other forms of online waging and gambling continue to have interpretation problems.

Being able to police this multi-billion dollar industry is a problem that corrupt politicians will never be able to solve.

Add wireless to wagering and you will undoubtedly cause those same politicians to spend sleepless nights trying to funnel the funds into their own pockets.

Thank goodness they kept their sticky fingers off of horse racing for you and me, but rest assured someone in Washington is getting some kickbacks from other forms of gambling. How do spell Indian Reservations?

Online horse race wagering is legal; however, gambling continues to be a vice mostly pushed to the sidelines. It pops up with a vengeance in places like Las Vegas and on Indian reservations, but there are plenty of outlets waiting with open arms for those who want more.

Gambling surged lock-in-step with the Internet explosion, only to be banned in the summer of 2006. The new federal legislation expanded a 1961 law that prohibits gambling over telephone lines to include the Internet, wireless and other technologies. It bans payments to offshore casinos and outlaws all forms of online gambling.

The focus is on the money that changes hands with financial institutions. Companies have continued to find new ways to transfer money, typically offshore.

Like everything the Internet breathed new life into on the PC, mobile has followed behind. Music, television, films and so much more have began to find their groove in wireless (albeit some much more successfully than others), but will gambling come to the small screen in a big way?

The fact is, it’s already arrived, but again, pushed even further to the sidelines. Although some companies offer betting through mobile WAP sites and downloadable applications, wireless and gambling veterans doubt it will have much success stateside.

"I’m just not sure. I don’t see an eager public. The public has most betting accessible to them already and then the sports betting would be limited," said William Thompson, a gambling consultant and professor at University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

Sports betting is the most likely format to see any interest on mobile, said Thompson, who also goes by the name "Billy Gamble." Lotteries would be another venue for potential success on mobile, but it’s unlikely to take off, he said.

Rest of the Story

For me, I will continue my horse race handicapping and wagering online. The payoffs can be very nice, if you have the proper education.

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Horse Race Handicapping College - Horse Racing and Sharks

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

27 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Horse Racing and Sharks

Most players / horse race handicappers that go to the track are just feeding the sharks. Look and listen!

Fact - The track can't lose.

Only foolish players lose. Yes, It is foolish to risk your cash on bets that cannot possibly win.

In every horse race there are horses entered that are there only to FILL the field. There are horses that are entered only for the workout or experience. Those particular horses have NO CHANCE whatsoever.

Yet uneducated players bet on every horse in every race. Why? Because they are foolish. You work hard for your cash, why GIVE it to someone else? Believe it or not, it is the educated horse race handicappers who collect at the window on a consistent basis.

When you lose money at the track you are not losing it to the track, but to those players in the know. What do they know, you might ask? They know more than you do. That is the only edge they need. An educated horse race handicapper is a horse race handicapper with the $.

Why is it that this same crowd wins all the money, all the time?

You and many others buy the Racing Form, or other papers and Tip Sheets. You study them carefully. You think because you can quote speed ratings, past performance, Beyer numbers, workouts, blood lines, and all the PP's, you can predict the winners.

Sure you might win some races. But that is only due to Chance or "The Laws of Probability".

That other player, the educated horse race handicappers who"know" win a large percentage of their bets, and use discipline and strict bankroll management. They don't bet on low probabilty bets. They don't risk their cash foolishly.

Who is going to win the most? The horse race handicapper who can put it all together, or those players who bet because they like the "name or color" of the horse, or because some race analyst is touting a particular horse?

It's not even close. Horse race handicappers do not get rich because other horse players knew as much as they do. They win money from the foolish players. There will always be those, but it does not have to include you.

If you want to win at the track, you have to be an educated horse race handicapper. That is your choice.

Bottom Line - The "Shark" at the track is the educated horse race handicapper. Be the "Shark".

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Horse Race Handicapping College - the Kentucky Derby Big Show

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

28 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby Big Show

Tradition + College Students = Thoroughbred Horse Racing Super Bowl

You know you're from Kentucky if half your friends are spending the first Saturday in May going wild in the infield or parading around in over-sized hats with mint juleps in hand.

Secretariat raced it in one minute and 59 seconds in 1973. Last year, Street Sense raced it in a little over two minutes.

This May, Kentucky Derby favorites Pyro and Big Brown, along with 15 other contenders, hope to steal the coveted blanket of roses during the world's most famous two-minutes of horse racing.

"Growing up in Louisville, it's a must to go," Lauren Allard, sophomore from Louisville, Ky., said. "For me, it's a homecoming when I go back to Louisville for the Derby. I went to the Derby a few years ago. I loved seeing everyone dressed up where I saw many ridiculous and elaborate hats."

The 2008 Kentucky Derby will be held Saturday May 1 under the twin spires at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

As a tradition since 1875, 10 to 15 three-year-old horses will race 1.4 miles down a dirt track.

The winning horse will receive a purse of $2 million. Derby Day is preceded by The Oaks, a horse race exclusively for thoroughbred fillies.

Rest of the Story

Just like Football's Super Bowl, you don't have to be a fan of the sport to be caught up in all the talk and enthusiasm leading up to the most exciting 2 minutes in sports.

Rest assured, serious horse race handicappers are already studying the contenders for this year. [See 26 March 2008 Post]

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Horse Race Handicapping College - Thoroughbred Racing at Aqueduct

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

29 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Racing Playoffs Continue at Aqueduct

War Pass + Aqueduct = Kentucky Derby Contender

Three weeks removed from an inexplicable defeat, War Pass will get the chance to answer a slew of questions on Saturday in the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct.

The leader at every call in his five previous races, War Pass never reached the front in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and came up shockingly empty in finishing last as the 1-to-20 favorite.

No clear explanation surfaced, and War Pass never presented his trainer, Nick Zito, with a reason not to continue.

“For whatever reason, he just didn’t show up,” Zito said. “You want to be confident and draw a line through the Tampa race. I’m apprehensive, excited, happy—and cautious. I’m a fan, too, and I want to see a horse like War Pass run big. I always have confidence when I have War Pass.”

War Pass reassured Zito with a half-mile breeze in :47.40 on March 27 at Palm Meadows Training Center in his only workout since the Tampa Bay Derby.

“His work last week was great,” said Zito. “From what I can see, he’s going to put in a good effort.”

War Pass is one of four top two-year-olds from 2007 who go into the Wood Memorial in need of some rebuilding, with the May 3 Kentucky Derby Presented Yum! Brands (G1) five weeks away.

Rest of the Story

War Pass will have to have an exceptional run on Saturday to prove to horse handicappers that he has what it takes to take home some roses at the Kentucky Derby.

A poor showing here will open the door to the possibilities of not competing in Louisville.

Finishing out of the money and then continuing on to the Kentucky Derby will undoubtedly open many long shot opportunities for quite a few horse race handicappers.

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Horse Race Handicapping College - Horse Racing and Horse Race Handicapping Still Exempt

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

30 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Horse Racing and Horse Race Handicapping Still Exempt

(Even though the Feds say that internet gambling is ambiguous)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Congress' ban on Internet gambling is so vague that figuring out how to enforce it is a struggle, say federal officials charged with the task.

"I think it is very difficult without having more of a bright line about what is intended to be unlawful Internet gambling," Louise Roseman, head of the Federal Reserve's bank operations division, told a House hearing Wednesday.

"The challenge we have is interpreting something, particularly federal laws, that Congress itself isn't sure what they mean," she said.

Congress passed the ban with little notice in 2006 when Senate Republicans, pushed by then-Majority Leader Bill Frist, attached it to an unrelated port security bill in a rush of year-end legislation.

Internet gambling already was considered mostly illegal in the U.S., but the games are played by many U.S. residents on sites hosted overseas in a business worth more than $15.5 billion a year. U.S. bettors have been estimated to provide at least half that revenue.

The congressional ban sought to explicitly outlaw Internet gambling but didn't offer a clear definition everyone could agree on, instead referring to existing federal and state laws which themselves provoke differing interpretations. It put the burden on financial institutions by prohibiting them from accepting payments from credit cards, checks or electronic fund transfers to settle online wagers.

That's led to complaints from the financial services industry about the difficulty of determining where payments are going, especially because online betting businesses can disguise themselves with relative ease.

It "makes financial institutions the police, prosecutors, and judges in place of real law enforcement officers," Wayne Abernathy of the American Bankers Association told a House Financial Services subcommittee Wednesday.

Regulations proposed by the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve last fall would apply to the gambling business' bank — generally not to the gambler's bank — and require it to use due diligence to ascertain the nature of its customer's business and ensure it is not processing illegal Internet gambling payments. The regulation doesn't attempt a definition of illegal online gambling, since Congress didn't give one.

Rest of Story

Bottom Line... The Law may be ambiguous, but horse racing and online horse race handicapping is still legal and can be quite profitable if you know the game. (Education is the secret key)

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Horse Race Handicapping College - 2002 Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

31 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

2002 Kentucky Derby

Just another month to the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby and memories are still vivid from this strong performance 6 years ago.

War Emblem shows early speed, staying power down the back stretch, and found another gear down the stretch to the wire to win the 2002 Kentucky Derby.



From this performance, it was very hard for horse handicappers not to include War Emblem in future race selections.

From this years contenders, there will emerge a solid favorite, but don't count out the horse that is showing consistency with solid performances.

Be sure to order your Kentucky Derby tickets early.

Kentucky Derby tickets at Churchill Downs in premier seating-all backed by an unprecedented 200% money back guarantee.

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