Horse Race Handicapping College - Thoroughbred Horse Racing and the Track Bias

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

68 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Horse Racing and the Track Bias

All successful horse race handicappers know that they always have to factor in the track bias for each and every horse race that they are considering.

So what is the basis of a track bias?

The basis of the track bias comes well before the horse race. Horse racing relies on a consistent track bias, and it is the job of the track superintendent to provide a safe race track for all the horses as well as that consistent track bias.

Every day, a member of the track crew measures the depth of the main track by driving around in a truck and stopping at every 16th pole to measure.

They stick a probe into the dirt/poly cushion at 3-foot, 10-foot, 20-foot, 30-foot, and 40-foot marks and writes down the measurement.

If the depth isn't consistent and true, the crew grades the racetrack until it is. Grading prevents a build up of materials along the rail. However, over the course of a race meet, certain trends can develop on the main track, turf course, or both, that give certain horses an advantage over others, and a professional horse race handicapper is able to spot these like a genius.

Here are some of the most common main track biases that a horse race handicapper should always factor into their analysis.

The Golden Rail: If the rail is golden, the speed horses last longer on the rail. You'll see the speed horses break from the starting gate and be taken straight to the rail by their jockeys. Horse race handicappers will pick up on this trend and use it to their advantage.

If a golden rail exists, even when a come-from-behind horse wins, this horse needs to spend a good part of the race saving ground on the rail before making a charge down the stretch.

Dead Rail: The converse is true when the rail is dead, meaning the inside speed horses are running as if standing still. Any speed horses that win over this track bias will race far off the rail, maybe as wide as four or five wide from the inside rail. In dead rail cases, look for come-from-behind horses to run wide in the stretch run.

Pure Speed Bias: When you see a pure speed bias racetrack, which path or lane the speed horse runs in really doesn't matter. Sometimes you see ridiculous fast fractions like a quarter-mile in less than 22 seconds and half-mile less than 45 seconds. With a speed bias, the leaders just keep going and don't get caught by the closing horses.

You'll tend to notice with experience that certain tracks have enormous biases due to rain and other weather conditions.

As a horseplayer and horse race handicapper, you will always need to be careful about a track bias, because you can easily get fooled.

For example, say the speed horse on the rail wins the first three races of the day. Many horse race handicappers will immediately label the main track as favoring inside speed. However, the three winners may have been the best horses in the races regardless of this perceived bias.

Also, when a jockey rides a speed horse, he will often try to break the horse sharp, regardless of the post, and move left towards the rail, regardless of the track bias.

Remember that riding the rail is the shortest path to the finish line.

If the first three winners were rally wide horses, many horse handicappers will list a dead rail and an outside lane speed bias.

Again, the three winners may just be the best horses in the races. And remember that horses that rally from behind, most of the time, rally wide because the jockey doesn't want to get caught in the traffic on the rail.

Bottom Line: There will always be a track bias, either perceived or actual. The burden will always be placed on the horse race handicapper to determine the validity.

Horse racing handicapping and wagering, although a legal form of gambling, does not guarantee that the risk of losing your money has been eliminated.

Always wager with money that you can afford to lose, do not violate your money management rules, and do not be greedy, there will always be another horse race to wager on.

Fact: Only 2% of all horse race handicappers actually make money wagering.

Visit http://www.HorseRaceHandicappingCollege.com for more information.

Horse Race Handicapping College - Thoroughbred Horse Racing - Blinkers On

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

69 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Horse Racing Blinkers On

The most common piece of equipment for horse racing known to horse race handicappers are the blinkers.

Blinkers are the eye shields attached to the horse's bridle or head to block his vision and keep him looking forward on the racetrack; keeping track distractions to a minimum for the horse.

Blinkers are a very simple but effective piece of equipment to improve a horse's performance, keeping the distractions to a minimum.

Blinkers on or blinkers off, that is the question. Experienced horse race handicappers will take note of this equipment change and factor it into their race analysis.

Thoroughbred race horses have great peripheral vision and they can literally see behind themselves. The main purpose of blinkers is to take away the horses' peripheral vision and keep them focused on the race ahead of him.

Another reason for using blinkers is because many horses let their minds wander in a race. If the trainer has determined through workouts and previous races that the horse is easily distracted by other horses and the track surroundings, then the blinkers will go be on and annotated in the racing form.

In most cases, maiden horses (horses that have never won a race) run without blinkers until they prove they need them. The jockey may tell the trainer after a race that the horse is looking around and isn't interested in the race.

The trainer typically tries blinkers on the horse in the morning during gallops and during workouts to see if they help. The exercise rider should be able to tell a difference and would provide this valuable information to the trainer.

The horse owner and trainer, are always looking for improvement in the horse, as is a horse race handicapper. And something as small as the blinker can significantly improve a horse's focus and performance.

A few trainers have also been known to just throw the blinkers on for race day and see what happens. The riders of those horses require blind faith that the horses accept the blinkers favorably.

The Daily Racing Form lists a statistic that indicates when a blinker change occurs. Underneath the horse's past performances, you see a category that tells whether the horse has blinkers on or not and what the trainer's win percentage is for both scenarios.

Horse racing handicapping and wagering, although a legal form of gambling, does not guarantee that the risk of losing your money has been eliminated.

Always wager with money that you can afford to lose, do not violate your money management rules, and do not be greedy, there will always be another horse race to wager on.

Fact: Only 2% of all horse race handicappers actually make money wagering.

Visit http://www.HorseRaceHandicappingCollege.com for more information.

Horse Race Handicapping College - Thoroughbred Horse Racing Surfaces

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

70 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Horse Racing Surfaces

Some horses like the new poly tracks, or synthetic tracks and some horses have had a tough time adjusting to the footing.

Since the new track surfaces have been around for some time now, most experienced horse race handicappers have adjusted their handicapping accordingly.

Just as with turf races, dirt, sand, and all surfaces in between, there are some accepted ideas that seem to be prevalent but may not always hold up under the keen eye of the professional horse race handicapper, let alone scientific scrutiny.

For instance, it is a widely held opinion that early speed cannot be sustained and that closers have a big advantage on synthetic tracks.

But a closer look at the figures indicates that cheap early speed fades. [A sprinter does not make a distance/route contender]. That isn't anything new and applies to all track surfaces. A quality horse with early speed that is a good fit for the class of that particular race can still win on synthetic surfaces.

So what should a thoroughbred horse race handicapper look for when trying to spot a winner on poly track surfaces?

There is a golden key and it is often hidden from the casual player. Here are some things that work when trying to pick winners on poly tracks:

First of all, look for a horse who has had at least one effort on the poly track or who has been working out regularly on the poly track surface.

Often you will find that a horse will do better on its second outing on the synthetic surface because it is familiar with it. [Kinda like Mickey-some horses will like it more than others]

Horses are like people, they do better when they know what to expect. If you look at the winners at your local track with a poly surface, you'll find that many of them ran a good race on the synthetic track the first time out and improved on that race to win the second time out.

Successful horse race handicappers often will give the edge to a maiden first time starter if it has been working on the synthetic surface. This may sound like common sense, but a lot of players will miss the play when they see more impressive works from another runner who has been training on dirt.

You also need to check those internal fractions. Closers and horse who can come from off the pace do seem to win a lot of races on the poly surface.

So if a horse made a big move but failed to win last time out, look for that horse to win. Pace horse handicappers are doing well with synthetic race surfaces because they look at the hidden fractions that the casual player usually misses.

The way to check to see if your horse made a good move is to compare the speed in the last quarters of a race to the speed in the earlier part of the race. Also, look at the overall pace of the race itself.

Thoroughbred horse race handicapping and actually winning at the races isn't impossible, but it is challenging. You can look at the introduction of synthetic surfaces as an obstacle or another chance to get an edge. Use these simple steps and you will see that the poly track can produce some nice winning payoffs.

Like any other kind of horse handicapping, though, winning on the poly surface takes discipline, focus, and solid money management. The racing surface is just part of the game.

Horse racing handicapping and wagering, although a legal form of gambling, does not guarantee that the risk of losing your money has been eliminated.

Always wager with money that you can afford to lose, do not violate your money management rules, and do not be greedy, there will always be another horse race to wager on.

Fact: Only 2% of all horse race handicappers actually make money wagering.

Visit http://www.HorseRaceHandicappingCollege.com for more information.

Horse Race Handicapping College - Thoroughbred Horse Racing Athletes

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

71 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Horse Racing Athletes

Too often horse race handicappers get into a rut of thinking in terms of only the numbers and the names of the horses in the horse race.

For instance, we scan our racing form looking for jockey trainer combinations or the names of horses we are watching. At other times we think only in terms of numbers, as in who has the highest Beyer speed figure at the distance, etc.

Many times there is one important part of horse racing handicapping we overlook and that is the fact that the horses and jockeys are athletes competing in an athletic event.

Horse racing is a very demanding sport. It tests the jockeys and horses in ways that can be physically dangerous, and even deadly. In order to compete, a horse has to be in excellent shape.

Many of the horses that compete from day to day are horses that have raced long enough to have sustained injuries in the past that the trainer must be aware of, and help the animal to overcome. We all know that some of the most successful trainers got to the top of the trainer profession by being able to claim lame animals and get them fit and ready in a short time.

There are indeed plenty of parallels in horse racing to competitive and professional athletes, and a successful horse race handicapper will recognize this and be able to spot the 'star performers' much like a 'Scout' who is paid to seek out a professional athlete in any sport.

Horse racing handicapping therefore demands that you be able to judge a horse's physical ability and condition according to its most recent performance.

But which performance do you use; workouts or races? You may ask yourself, did the trainer send this horse out for an easy 3 furlong workout because it couldn't manage more than that or because it is in fine shape and the trainer did not want to expend all the energy of the horse in a workout?

That is a good question and to answer it, look at the last race the horse ran. How recent was it? How does the trainer normally work this horse? In other words, this horse is an athlete and has muscles that must be conditioned and also a personality that must be considered. What works for one horse doesn't work for another horse and one trainer's methods may not work for one horse but will work for another.

A successful horse race handicapper must in all cases, evaluate the horse on the basic elements- an animal, flesh and blood, muscle and bone.

So when you are handicapping, think of the race as a competition between trained and conditioned athletes. See if you can figure out which athlete is the best trained and has the best conditioning. You must also consider which horse has the best athlete on its back to help it along.

Bottom Line-Horse racing is just another sport with competing athletes. It is your job as a horse race handicapper to identify the horses and the jockeys with the ability, talent, and conditioning to win the next race.

Horse racing handicapping and wagering, although a legal form of gambling, does not guarantee that the risk of losing your money has been eliminated.

Always wager with money that you can afford to lose, do not violate your money management rules, and do not be greedy, there will always be another horse race to wager on.

Fact: Only 2% of all horse race handicappers actually make money wagering.

Visit http://www.HorseRaceHandicappingCollege.com for more information.

Horse Race Handicapping College - Thoroughbred Horse Racing - Beyer and Class

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

72 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Horse Racing - Beyer and Class

Beyer speed figures are surprisingly similar in effectiveness in most class races. They are also effective in claiming races, allowance races, and stakes races. They tend to better depict the speed of the horse at the upper end of the class ladder.

Experienced horse race handicappers who factor in class into their handicapping know that the higher class horses will tend to duplicate their efforts a little more often than the cheaper horses.

Beyer figures have shown over time that they are least useful when dealing with maiden races where there are first time starters and horses that have only raced a few times. Horse race handicappers know that novice players will always bet a high Beyer, no matter what, and will usually take advantage knowing that in this type of horse race, they will easily find a horse that actually figures higher than a top Beyer horse.

In races where there is a lot to consider, the Beyer importance will usually be diminished.

To name a few... off tracks, horses shipping in from other tracks, horses dropping in class will usually record a higher Beyer, horses stepping-up in class will usually record a lower Beyer than in a previous race.

Many horses that have the highest Beyer numbers, and do not win, are the horses that have stepped up in class.

Many horse players are so mesmerized by horses with high Beyer numbers, that they fail to notice that the high Beyer number may have been earned in a 'Soft' race.

There is nothing wrong with using Beyer numbers in your horse race handicapping analysis, but if you use this exclusively, I guarantee that you will spot the successful horse race handicapper at the cashier's window collecting your 'beyer money'.

Bottom Line - Beyer numbers are important, but Beyer numbers used with Class considerations are priceless.

Horse racing handicapping and wagering, although a legal form of gambling, does not guarantee that the risk of losing your money has been eliminated.

Always wager with money that you can afford to lose, do not violate your money management rules, and do not be greedy, there will always be another horse race to wager on.

Fact: Only 2% of all horse race handicappers actually make money wagering.

Visit http://www.HorseRaceHandicappingCollege.com for more information.