22 February 2008

Horse Race Handicapping College - Thoroughbred Horse Racing Surfaces

Kentucky Derby Countdown:
70 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Horse Racing Surfaces

Some horses like the new poly tracks, or synthetic tracks and some horses have had a tough time adjusting to the footing.

Since the new track surfaces have been around for some time now, most experienced horse race handicappers have adjusted their handicapping accordingly.

Just as with turf races, dirt, sand, and all surfaces in between, there are some accepted ideas that seem to be prevalent but may not always hold up under the keen eye of the professional horse race handicapper, let alone scientific scrutiny.

For instance, it is a widely held opinion that early speed cannot be sustained and that closers have a big advantage on synthetic tracks.

But a closer look at the figures indicates that cheap early speed fades. [A sprinter does not make a distance/route contender]. That isn't anything new and applies to all track surfaces. A quality horse with early speed that is a good fit for the class of that particular race can still win on synthetic surfaces.

So what should a thoroughbred horse race handicapper look for when trying to spot a winner on poly track surfaces?

There is a golden key and it is often hidden from the casual player. Here are some things that work when trying to pick winners on poly tracks:

First of all, look for a horse who has had at least one effort on the poly track or who has been working out regularly on the poly track surface.

Often you will find that a horse will do better on its second outing on the synthetic surface because it is familiar with it. [Kinda like Mickey-some horses will like it more than others]

Horses are like people, they do better when they know what to expect. If you look at the winners at your local track with a poly surface, you'll find that many of them ran a good race on the synthetic track the first time out and improved on that race to win the second time out.

Successful horse race handicappers often will give the edge to a maiden first time starter if it has been working on the synthetic surface. This may sound like common sense, but a lot of players will miss the play when they see more impressive works from another runner who has been training on dirt.

You also need to check those internal fractions. Closers and horse who can come from off the pace do seem to win a lot of races on the poly surface.

So if a horse made a big move but failed to win last time out, look for that horse to win. Pace horse handicappers are doing well with synthetic race surfaces because they look at the hidden fractions that the casual player usually misses.

The way to check to see if your horse made a good move is to compare the speed in the last quarters of a race to the speed in the earlier part of the race. Also, look at the overall pace of the race itself.

Thoroughbred horse race handicapping and actually winning at the races isn't impossible, but it is challenging. You can look at the introduction of synthetic surfaces as an obstacle or another chance to get an edge. Use these simple steps and you will see that the poly track can produce some nice winning payoffs.

Like any other kind of horse handicapping, though, winning on the poly surface takes discipline, focus, and solid money management. The racing surface is just part of the game.

Horse racing handicapping and wagering, although a legal form of gambling, does not guarantee that the risk of losing your money has been eliminated.

Always wager with money that you can afford to lose, do not violate your money management rules, and do not be greedy, there will always be another horse race to wager on.

Fact: Only 2% of all horse race handicappers actually make money wagering.

Visit http://www.HorseRaceHandicappingCollege.com for more information.

21 February 2008

Horse Race Handicapping College - Thoroughbred Horse Racing Athletes

Kentucky Derby Countdown:
71 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Horse Racing Athletes

Too often horse race handicappers get into a rut of thinking in terms of only the numbers and the names of the horses in the horse race.

For instance, we scan our racing form looking for jockey trainer combinations or the names of horses we are watching. At other times we think only in terms of numbers, as in who has the highest Beyer speed figure at the distance, etc.

Many times there is one important part of horse racing handicapping we overlook and that is the fact that the horses and jockeys are athletes competing in an athletic event.

Horse racing is a very demanding sport. It tests the jockeys and horses in ways that can be physically dangerous, and even deadly. In order to compete, a horse has to be in excellent shape.

Many of the horses that compete from day to day are horses that have raced long enough to have sustained injuries in the past that the trainer must be aware of, and help the animal to overcome. We all know that some of the most successful trainers got to the top of the trainer profession by being able to claim lame animals and get them fit and ready in a short time.

There are indeed plenty of parallels in horse racing to competitive and professional athletes, and a successful horse race handicapper will recognize this and be able to spot the 'star performers' much like a 'Scout' who is paid to seek out a professional athlete in any sport.

Horse racing handicapping therefore demands that you be able to judge a horse's physical ability and condition according to its most recent performance.

But which performance do you use; workouts or races? You may ask yourself, did the trainer send this horse out for an easy 3 furlong workout because it couldn't manage more than that or because it is in fine shape and the trainer did not want to expend all the energy of the horse in a workout?

That is a good question and to answer it, look at the last race the horse ran. How recent was it? How does the trainer normally work this horse? In other words, this horse is an athlete and has muscles that must be conditioned and also a personality that must be considered. What works for one horse doesn't work for another horse and one trainer's methods may not work for one horse but will work for another.

A successful horse race handicapper must in all cases, evaluate the horse on the basic elements- an animal, flesh and blood, muscle and bone.

So when you are handicapping, think of the race as a competition between trained and conditioned athletes. See if you can figure out which athlete is the best trained and has the best conditioning. You must also consider which horse has the best athlete on its back to help it along.

Bottom Line-Horse racing is just another sport with competing athletes. It is your job as a horse race handicapper to identify the horses and the jockeys with the ability, talent, and conditioning to win the next race.

Horse racing handicapping and wagering, although a legal form of gambling, does not guarantee that the risk of losing your money has been eliminated.

Always wager with money that you can afford to lose, do not violate your money management rules, and do not be greedy, there will always be another horse race to wager on.

Fact: Only 2% of all horse race handicappers actually make money wagering.

Visit http://www.HorseRaceHandicappingCollege.com for more information.

20 February 2008

Horse Race Handicapping College - Thoroughbred Horse Racing - Beyer and Class

Kentucky Derby Countdown:
72 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Horse Racing - Beyer and Class

Beyer speed figures are surprisingly similar in effectiveness in most class races. They are also effective in claiming races, allowance races, and stakes races. They tend to better depict the speed of the horse at the upper end of the class ladder.

Experienced horse race handicappers who factor in class into their handicapping know that the higher class horses will tend to duplicate their efforts a little more often than the cheaper horses.

Beyer figures have shown over time that they are least useful when dealing with maiden races where there are first time starters and horses that have only raced a few times. Horse race handicappers know that novice players will always bet a high Beyer, no matter what, and will usually take advantage knowing that in this type of horse race, they will easily find a horse that actually figures higher than a top Beyer horse.

In races where there is a lot to consider, the Beyer importance will usually be diminished.

To name a few... off tracks, horses shipping in from other tracks, horses dropping in class will usually record a higher Beyer, horses stepping-up in class will usually record a lower Beyer than in a previous race.

Many horses that have the highest Beyer numbers, and do not win, are the horses that have stepped up in class.

Many horse players are so mesmerized by horses with high Beyer numbers, that they fail to notice that the high Beyer number may have been earned in a 'Soft' race.

There is nothing wrong with using Beyer numbers in your horse race handicapping analysis, but if you use this exclusively, I guarantee that you will spot the successful horse race handicapper at the cashier's window collecting your 'beyer money'.

Bottom Line - Beyer numbers are important, but Beyer numbers used with Class considerations are priceless.

Horse racing handicapping and wagering, although a legal form of gambling, does not guarantee that the risk of losing your money has been eliminated.

Always wager with money that you can afford to lose, do not violate your money management rules, and do not be greedy, there will always be another horse race to wager on.

Fact: Only 2% of all horse race handicappers actually make money wagering.

Visit http://www.HorseRaceHandicappingCollege.com for more information.

19 February 2008

Horse Race Handicapping College - The Greatest Thoroughbred Horse of All Time

Kentucky Derby Countdown:
73 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

The Greatest Thoroughbred Horse of All Time

Ask any horse race handicapper who was the best thoroughbred of all time and the name of Secretariat and Man O' War will most likely rule the conversation.

Enjoy this short video commentary on the greatest thoroughbred of all time. You Decide.




I was not doing handicapping during World War I and World War II and the Vietnam War, but anyone who was doing any horse race handicapping during those times, was not surprised by the likes of Secretariat and Man O' War.

If you decide to play in this game, do not play without the proper education.

Horse racing handicapping and wagering, although a legal form of gambling, does not guarantee that the risk of losing your money has been eliminated.

Always wager with money that you can afford to lose, do not violate your money management rules, and do not be greedy, there will always be another horse race to wager on.

Fact: Only 2% of all horse race handicappers actually make money wagering.

Visit http://www.HorseRaceHandicappingCollege.com for more information.

18 February 2008

Horse Race Handicapping College - Thoroughbred Horse Racing 2% Club

Kentucky Derby Countdown:
74 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Horse Racing 2% Club

There are an unlimited number of ways to earn money. You can get a job, you can have a business, you can invest, or you can become a horse race handicapper.

Of all these modalities for earning money the one with a higher return on small investments but with the biggest risk is the one we all know about; horse race wagering. Known in the industry as horse race handicapping.

But how risky is betting once you have identified and characterized the phenomena you are using for your betting goals? I would answer that the risk goes down to the level of standard investments and even a standard business. This means you can make money consistently, but only when you have the discipline and focus to apply your education and always without exception not straying from strict money management guidelines.

It is a fact that hundreds of millions of dollars are won each week at the horse races but only about 2% of all horse race handicappers manage to make a living from horse racing handicapping. They are not just “chance” players. These are the guys that have managed to characterize the phenomena, in this case “horse racing”, such that they have learned how to invest in “horse racing”, without risking unnecessary capital.

In other words-"Never, Never, Never, wager with money that you cannot afford to lose."

So when we talk about making money from horse racing betting, we’re not talking about a few ‘freak’ or lucky wins in a month. That’s still just “chance” or being “lucky”. What a serious and professional horse race handicapper must be aiming at, is to consistently profit, week after week and year after year from his racing bets.

Education is always the 'Gold' Key to success. If you are an educated horse race handicapper, you increase your odds dramatically in becoming a long term successful horse race handicapper and being part of that 2% Winning Club.

If you decide to play in this game, do not play without the proper education.

Horse racing handicapping and wagering, although a legal form of gambling, does not guarantee that the risk of losing your money has been eliminated.

Always wager with money that you can afford to lose, do not violate your money management rules, and do not be greedy, there will always be another horse race to wager on.

Fact: Only 2% of all horse race handicappers actually make money wagering.

Visit http://www.HorseRaceHandicappingCollege.com for more information.