Horse Race Handicapping College - Perfection + Potential = Kentucky Derby Winner?

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

20 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Perfection + Potential = Kentucky Derby Winner?

There is an unmistakable mystique that envelops the undefeated horse in the Kentucky Derby, the role in which the mercurial Big Brown is cast for the 134th running.

The aura of perfection glows brightly in a world accustomed to and comfortable with an 80 percent rate of failure. When a 3-year-old thoroughbred arrives free of blemish in Kentucky in advance of the first weekend of May, the so-far unstoppable force faces the sport's most daunting challenge short of winning the Triple Crown, the most difficult race in which he (or occasionally she) may ever compete, a test rife with challenge and peril. When such a horse remains unbowed after the Derby, the niche of sport in which racing exists is transcended.

Big Brown looks the part. Even to the untrained eye, he is a physically imposing chestnut, a combination of brawn with speed. He moved seamlessly from turf to dirt and effortlessly from allowance to Grade 1 company, winning the Florida Derby with absolute authority in what has been the most-impressive 9-furlong win of the season by any member of his generation. There is a song about him on You Tube, not a good song, but an exuberant tribute nevertheless. Big Brown already has fans and depending upon whose opinion is offered, he is either the Derby favorite or second-choice. To those who believe he has no chance, this is a betting opportunity.

He is either exactly what horse racing's leaders await, the dominant, unbending heroic figure, 1-5 every time he runs, an animal to whom children will write letters in crayon, or a disappointment in wait for the wheels to come off.

For all the potential, there is much for Big Brown to overcome on May 3.

A sparse campaign is not the trademark of trainer Rick Dutrow and a six-month gap in Big Brown's form was made necessary by hoof problems. No hoof, no horse, as they say, and infirm extremities in the thoroughbred are usually chronic.

He did not begin the season as a Derby prospect, but became one only last month after an explosive win in a race moved from turf to dirt at Gulfstream Park inspired his connections to change direction and target the Florida Derby. Were the Kentucky Derby the principal objective... Rest of Story

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Horse Race Handicapping College - Horse Racing Final Exam With Pyro

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

21 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Horse Racing Final Exam With Pyro

Already secure in their qualifications for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1), Pyro and Cool Coal Man will cross paths for a final exam on Saturday in the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland Race Course.

Pyro, one of the leading Derby contenders coming into the year, has only enhanced his reputation with game victories in the Risen Star Stakes (G3) and Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds.

Keeneland oddsmaker Mike Battaglia reflected the widespread high regard for Pyro on Wednesday morning when he pegged the Pulpit colt as the even-money favorite on the morning line for the largest Blue Grass field since 1983.

The Blue Grass will be Pyro’s first start on a synthetic surface. Trainer Steve Asmussen sent him to Keeneland about ten days after his three-length victory in the Louisiana Derby on March 8.

“He’s obviously the horse to beat,” said .... Rest of Story

But from a horse handicapper's perspective, just because he is the horse to beat and probably the favorite, does not make him a good selection. He will no doubt be bet down and there will be no value, unless you box him in the 2nd and 3rd hole of an exacta or trifecta.

Be wise in your wagering and do not stray from your money management plan and you will be there for the big ticket horse races.

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Horse Race Handicapping College - Thoroughbred Horse Racing - Curlin + 1 Year = Z Fortune?

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

22 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Thoroughbred Horse Racing - Curlin + 1 Year = Z Fortune?

One year after guiding Curlin to victory in Oaklawn Park's Arkansas Derby (G2), jockey Robby Albarado is approaching Saturday’s edition of the $1-million race with a different perspective.

Albarado will ride Z Fortune for the first time in the 1 1/8-mile race for three-year-olds. Steve Asmussen trains Z Fortune and Curlin, the 2007 Horse of the Year and champion three-year-old male.

“What a difference a year makes in the Arkansas Derby,” Albarado said. “The only thing that’s the same is I’m riding a horse for Steve. But unlike last year, this is a wide-open race with no standout.”

Zayat Stables’ Z Fortune enters off a fifth-place finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 15 at Oaklawn. The Siphon (Brz) colt made his first two starts of the year at Fair Grounds, and won the Lecomte Stakes (G3) on January 12 prior to finishing second to leading Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) contender Pyro in the Risen Star Stakes (G3) on February 9.

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Horse Race Handicapping College - Horse Racing Film..."The First Saturday in May"

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

23 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Horse Racing Film..."The First Saturday in May"

Brad and John Hennegan love horse racing so much they quit their jobs to make a movie about it. For a year, the Hennegan brothers followed six horse trainers from different backgrounds but all with the same goal -- a spot in the 2006 Kentucky Derby.

Now, after snagging awards at film festivals and sponsorship from Churchill Downs, their independent film, "The First Saturday in May" will soon be seen in movie theaters nationwide.

"Across the country, people know what the Kentucky Derby is but they really don't know how horses get there," Brad Hennegan said in a phone interview from Los Angeles. "So we wanted to make kind of 'Hoop Dreams' at the race track."

"The First Saturday in May" will have its Louisville premiere Sunday with a special screening at the Louisville Palace. Beginning April 18, it will run for two weeks at Stonybrook Cinema De Lux 20, 2745 S. Hurstbourne Parkway.

The brothers from Huntington, N.Y., practically grew up at the race track thanks to their father, who worked for the New York Racing Association.

Brad Hennegan, 36, spent the last decade working in television for companies such as College Sports Television and the Independent Film Channel. John Hennegan, 39, enjoyed successful careers in radio and television before he decided to delve into film development and production. "The First Saturday in May" is the first feature-length film for the brothers.

"We wanted to do our small part to help grow the sport of horse racing," Brad Hennegan said.

The film features a behind-the-scenes look at horses like Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, Jazil and, of course, the late, great Barbaro. The documentary includes never-before-seen footage of the thoroughbred who captured Kentucky Derby 132, then captured the hearts of racing fans during his fatal battle with a broken leg.

Brad Hennegan stresses, however, that "The First Saturday in May," is a movie about people.

"It just happens to be set at the greatest race in the world -- the Kentucky Derby," he said. "If you're a horse racing fan and you wanted to tell a friend, 'This is why...

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Horse Race Handicapping College - Horse Race Traffic and a Stumble

Kentucky Derby Countdown:

24 Days Until May 3rd and the 134th Kentucky Derby

Horse Race Traffic and a Stumble

Afleet Alex has a very strong performance in 2005 at the Preakness. Elected to move from the rail to the middle of track and ran into traffic. Disaster was averted out of the final turn, and then he pulled away down the stretch and took the wire.

I have personally seen horses stumble out of the gate and go on to win, but have never seen a horse stumble late in the race and finish strong and win. Awesome!



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